Chapter 382: Diverting Trouble Westward
The sudden seizure of Baltiysk by the Russian navy shocked the entire European world, and many people believed that the Kingdom of Prussia was doomed.
Just by looking at the map, it becomes evident that the coastline of the Kingdom of Prussia lies within the Baltic Sea, which falls within the sphere of influence of the Russian navy.
Since the outbreak of the war, the Danish navy has blocked Prussian maritime transportation channels, forcing strategic supplies donated by Britain and France to be transported by land.
Initially, the Russian government overlooked the role of the navy and did not attack the Prussian coastal areas, focusing solely on land-based combat, leaving the Kingdom of Prussia with some strength to fight.
However, the situation has changed now. With the frontlines on land remaining stagnant, the Russians shifted their focus to the sea, leveraging their naval advantage to deal a blow to the Kingdom of Prussia.
This poses an unsolvable problem, as the Russians can initiate amphibious operations at any point, while Prussia is unable to defend completely.
At the Vienna Palace, Foreign Minister Wessenberg remarked, Yesterday afternoon, the Russian envoy presented us with a new loan application. They are prepared to use the Saxon lands held by Prussia as collateral for a loan of 30 million guilders.
Using enemy territory as collateral for a loan is something only the Russian government could do. No, perhaps its not collateral; its more likely an outright sale.
Given the financial situation of the Russian government, the likelihood of repayment on time is very slim, and the probability of selling off the collateral to repay the debt is very high.
The premise is that the Russians win this battle and tear off this piece of flesh from the Kingdom of Prussia.
Franz inquired with concern, What is the opinion of the Saxon government? Do they have any interest in buying back this land?
The Prussian-held Saxon territories were ceded to Prussia at the Congress of Vienna in 1815. Now, the Kingdom of Saxony is a part of the new Holy Roman Empire, and if this territory were to return, it would naturally be returned to the Kingdom of Saxony.
The Prussian-held Saxon territories made up 40% of the territory of the Kingdom of Saxony, and the Kingdom of Saxony has always wanted to reclaim it. When they joined the new Holy Roman Empire, Prime Minister Felix made such a promise.
Now that the opportunity has arisen, can the Saxon government resist?
Franz had grave doubts.
If the Saxon government cannot resist, then the Austrian government cannot stop them on this issue, as Franz also has to consider public opinion.
The price of 30 million guilders is not unbearable for the economically developed Kingdom of Saxony. As long as they are willing to find a way, they can raise it.
Prime Minister Felix responded, The Saxon government should be inclined to invest in purchasing the Prussian-held Saxon territories. Prime Minister Freyser will arrive in Vienna this afternoon.
Franz pondered for a moment and said, Lets appease them first. Currently, these territories are still in Prussian hands, so the promises of the Russians cannot be relied upon. We must have other collateral to reduce the risk of the loan.
We can promise the Saxon government that approval of this Russo-Austrian loan is contingent upon the Russians agreeing to sell the Prussian-held territories of Saxony, and the price must be agreed upon in advance.
This matter was very troublesome. One could say the Russians chose an opportune timing.
Now, most people believe that the Russians will win the war, and at this time, using the Prussian-held territories of Saxony as bait makes it hard for the Austrian government to refuse.
The collateral loan is a pretext the true aim of the Russian government is to raise funds to continue the war.
Once the news spread, the people of Saxony would demand to buy back this land, and the Saxon government would not be able to refuse, nor could Austria afford not to cooperate.
Franz did not wish to take the blame. If Russia had already won the war, he would pay not just 30 million guilders, but 50 million if needed.
But now it was an unknown. If the Russian government was defeated or failed to obtain these lands from Prussia, then this loan could end up in the water.
Moreover, a loan with collateral and an outright sale were two different concepts. Now the Tsar is in desperate need of money, so he naturally dares not make excessive demands, for fear of scaring away potential lenders. But the situation may change in the future.
By then, priorities may shift, and taking advantage of the publics eagerness to regain control of the Prussian-held territories of Saxony, wont they sell it for an exorbitant price?
Foreign Minister Wessenberg said with deep concern, Your Majesty, since the Russians have put forward the Prussian-held territories of Saxony, I am afraid they may also promise the Rhineland to the French in exchange for a loan.
Franzs expression changed abruptly. It wasnt just possible, it was highly likely.
Strapped for cash, what would the Russian government not do?
Moreover, this was sacrificing others interests. Once the French are tempted, will the French government continue to support the Kingdom of Prussia wholeheartedly?
The Prussian government could not promise the same conditions. Not everyone was the same as Bismarck, daring to issue a blank check to the French.
In diplomacy, one cannot make reckless promises. If it werent for Bismarcks strong leadership and good luck in the original timeline, the Rhineland would have fallen into French hands long ago.
As part of Germany, the Rhineland has long been seen as Austrias prized possession. How could it easily be handed over to the French?
It must be disrupted the potential Franco-Russian deal must be disrupted!
This was Franzs first reaction, after which he got a headache thinking about how to disrupt the possible deal.
Leak the information to the British. Although the Rhineland has seen slower development in recent years, its rich resources and industrial infrastructure are still intact. Once it falls into French hands, it will quickly trigger a qualitative change. France is already formidable. If it grows stronger, the British government will not be able to sleep at night.
This was diverting trouble westward. The Russo-Austrian alliance is still in place, and there are many things that the Austrian government is not in a position to do against the Russians.
Prime Minister Felix proposed, Your Majesty, should we give them a little push and let the Russians lose this war altogether?
Making the Russians lose the war is quite simple. All it takes is for Austria to suddenly impose an embargo on supplies. Currently, most of the strategic supplies for the Russian frontline troops are produced by Austria.
Even if the Russian government wanted to buy elsewhere, there was no time. Moreover, they could not find sellers.
In Europe, only the three countries, Britain, France, and Austria, have this production capacity. If its possible to pull the Russians down from their dominant position, how could Britain and France possibly refuse?
A Franco-Russian compromise was only possible on the premise that Russia was poised to win. Napoleon III would not help Russia win the war and consolidate their enemys dominance.
This is also why various countries dread the Austro-Russian alliance. The two countries have complemented each other in resources, and the power they could unleash together is formidable.
Franz shook his head and said, No, we cant act at this time. The Prussians still have the strength to fight. As long as Britain and France are a bit more generous and allow the Prussians to arm all their able-bodied men, the Russians may not necessarily achieve victory.
Havent you noticed that Alexander IIs reforms have been suspended? After the war ends, does the Russian government still have the capacity to continue reforms?
To sustain this war, Alexander II had to compromise with the conservatives within the country to ensure domestic stability.
This compromise meant future reforms would be difficult. At least when facing similar issues, the difficulty of reform would increase significantly.
From a long-term perspective, the Russo-Prussian War has already achieved its strategic objectives. An imperfectly reformed Russian Empire is what Austria needs.
Now that the strategic objectives have been achieved, there is naturally no need to continue targeting the Russians. While the Russo-Austrian alliance has not yet come to an end, it is best to let others handle provoking resentment.
Plans can never keep up with rapid changes. While negotiating with Austria, the Russian government also initiated negotiations with the French.
At the Palace of Versailles, Napoleon III hesitated over the olive branch extended by the Russian government.
There can only be one hegemon in Europe, and Russia is Frances biggest competitor in this regard.
Lending money to the Russian government now undoubtedly aids their enemy.
From Napoleon IIIs perspective, the biggest challenge in obtaining the Rhineland does not lie in military matters but in politics.
Annexing the Kingdom of Sardinia was enough to prompt a united defensive circle by European countries against them. If military force is used to annex the Rhineland, it will inevitably provoke intervention from other countries.
At this point, France needs allies. Unlike the loan secured by using the Prussian-held territories of Saxony as collateral, the promise made by the Russian government was to support France in annexing the Rhineland.
This is a geopolitical decision. No matter how powerful the Russian Tsar is, he cannot leap across the German Federal Empire to occupy the Rhineland, so discussing collateral is out of the question.
With the support of the Russian government, France will not be politically isolated. By exchanging interests with other countries, the chances of successfully annexing the Rhineland are very high.
Foreign Minister Abraham proposed, Your Majesty, whether or not we should lend money to the Russian government, I believe the key is to consider the ultimate outcome of this war.
Currently, the Russians have a very high chance of winning, and I cant see how the Prussians can turn the tables. Even without our loan, the Russian government can still raise funds from elsewhere.
In that case, why not simply divide the Kingdom of Prussia with the Russians and maximize our interests?
Finance Minister Eren objected, No, the Russians have very poor credibility, and with their financial capability, they are simply unable to repay this loan.
Our money doesnt come from thin air; we cant just waste it like this. Dividing the Kingdom of Prussia without providing a loan to the Russians can still be achieved.
Once the Kingdom of Prussia is defeated, we can use the excuse of demanding debt repayment to temporarily administer the Rhineland, creating a fait accompli.
Then, through gradual public relations efforts and negotiations with various countries, we can make them recognize our occupation of the Rhineland.
The support of the Russians is irrelevant. With or without their support, we will still have to negotiate with other countries. Even if the Russian government opposes, they have no power to intervene. Isnt this a waste of money?
Foreign Minister Abraham countered, Count Eren, this is not a waste of money. With Russian support, obtaining tacit consent from various countries will be much easier.
If we dont have Russian support, when the time comes, all European countries will oppose us. Even if we swallow the Rhineland, well end up spitting it out in the end.
The support of various European countries may not be important, but support from great powers is essential.
Among the five major European powers, except for Spain, which is in internal turmoil and can be ignored, at least the support of one of the remaining powers must be obtained.
History has already taught the French that going at it alone is not viable, and recklessness is even less so.
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